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About Busy Bees
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
What is Busy Bees?
As a lifelong football enthusiast, it comes as little surprise that Lebron James’ transformative move to Polymarket on Labor Day Weekend served as a harbinger for an even broader announcement by the upstart predictions market operator.
Last Saturday, on the same day that Ohio State University made its season debut in college football, James teased a new commercial relationship with Polymarket. James, an ardent Buckeyes’ supporter, posted a brief video on social media platform X, where he announced his partnership with the controversial platform. While college football fans watched Ohio State thrash Miami (Ohio) 56-3, industry stakeholders wondered aloud which athletes would join “King James”.
After all, James indicated in the post that more details would be forthcoming. By Tuesday, the stakeholders received their answer when Polymarket aired a splashy ad that received more than 15.5 million views on James’ X page.
What is Busy Bees?
Published on 17 September, the House of Lords Liaison Committee’s follow-up report revisits their 2020 inquiry into the social and economic effects of the gambling industry, with a focus on advertising, marketing and sponsorship.
The committee concluded that current evidence justified taking “meaningful steps” against the sector, including a comprehensive advertising ban, to reduce exposure especially among children and vulnerable groups, and to curb problem gambling.
The report underscored gambling harm as a significant public health concern. It cited the Gambling Commission’s Gambling Survey for Great Britain (GSGB), which has indicated that between one and 1.5 million adults in Great Britain now score high enough on the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) rangeto indicate problem gambling.
