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But he said he was not concerned. “On the Italian antitrust, we don’t think we are in a risky situation because Italy is not the core of this deal and this doesn’t change the level of concentration in the country and will still be below 40% in each relevant market. So we don’t see that.
“We do not expect revenue attrition. These are complementary brands and complementary models, and we have a history of managing a multi-brand business in Italy, and we already have several brands that run in our business and that are complementary.”
Kyle has been with Clarion since December 2023, joining from the world of sports journalism, subsequently becoming a LatAm-facing senior reporter with iGB.
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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.
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The three markets have reached the same point by different routes. Morocco has an incumbent defending its exclusivity through the courts, so far without success.
Tunisia has competing bills to prohibit or regulate online betting, neither of which has advanced. Egypt has relied on enforcement measures.
In all three, private online betting has no licensing route. Governments are tackling offshore demand through blocking, prohibition and criminal enforcement.
